The average first innings total in Dubai reads 239, significantly lower than both Lahore (316) and Karachi (271). Dubai has offered something for both spin and seam with the venue recording the most swing for seamers in the PowerPlay across four venues. Seamers dominated the afternoons even with the older ball, with the pitch offering hold, especially for bowlers who can hit the deck. Spinners have found more purchase in the night with enough turn and substantial grip from the wicket.
India will have to decide between fourth spinner, or a second specialist seamer after Varun Chakaravarthy made himself undroppable with his five-fer against New Zealand. Australia has one forced change with Matthew Short being ruled out of the tournament. They could bring in Cooper Connolly, who can also offer part time left arm spin to share fifth bowler duties with Glenn Maxwell or they could bring in all-rounder Aaron Hardie who can double up as the change seamer and add another specialist spinner in Tanveer Sangha in place of one of their left-arm seamers.
Pace vs spin in Dubai in CT 2025
| Type | Inngs# | Balls | Wkts | ER | Ave | SR | Dot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 1 | 422 | 18 | 4.36 | 17.05 | 23.4 | 54.1 |
| Pace | 2 | 346 | 5 | 5.91 | 68.2 | 69.2 | 49.5 |
| Spin | 1 | 474 | 9 | 4.73 | 41.55 | 52.6 | 45.6 |
| Spin | 2 | 462 | 13 | 4.07 | 24.15 | 35.5 | 51.9 |
The ‘Head’-ache
That Travis Head has been a thorn in the flesh for India in the recent times is well documented. Since his comeback to the ODI setup in 2022, no player has scored more rapidly than Head in the PowerPlay. Maximizing this phase will be crucial in Dubai given how hard it gets to bat once the ball gets older. Head also has a great head-to-head against the Indian spin trio of Kuldeep-Axar-Jadeja in ODIs, scoring 123 runs at run a ball, getting dismissed just once.
The slight chink in Head’s armour has been early on in his innings with the ball going away from him from the round-the-stumps angle from right-arm seamers. Head averages 22.25 for eight dismissals against right-arm seamers bowling from round the wicket in the PowerPlay, compared to 56 against bowlers operating from over the wicket.
This is the natural angle for Mohammed Shami against left handers, as he deliveries 91% of his deliveries to southpaws from this angle since 2023 and averages 18.92 with a wicket every 21.2 balls. In’that’ night in Ahmedabad in November 2023, every delivery Head faced from Shami and Bumrah in the PowerPlay were from around the wicket, and they beat his bat 26.9% of the time without any luck. Left-arm seamers moving it away from Head over the wicket has also put him in a spot often and Arshdeep has a got him twice in 30 balls in T20s, though it seems unlikely India will bring him into the XI.
Travis Head vs right arm seam in Powerplay since 2022
| Angle | Inns | Runs | BF | SR | Dis | Ave | BpD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 21 | 280 | 224 | 125 | 5 | 56 | 44.8 |
| Round | 19 | 178 | 160 | 111.25 | 8 | 22.25 | 20 |
How will Australia tackle the spin threat?
Australia’s lead-up to Champions Trophy 2025 was not the most favourable, having been spin-washed in the two ODIs in Sri Lanka, where they lost 15 of the 20 wickets to spin in dry conditions. The conditions in Dubai are likely to not be too different from that in Sri Lanka and India have a high quality spin attack to exploit whatever is on offer.
Despite extracting the least amount of turn in the game against New Zealand – a side proficient against playing spin – Chakaravarthy was tough deal with. A lot of it is to do with the novelty factor and the pace with which he operates. This will be his first game against Australia in any format and only Steve Smith (10 balls, 14 runs, No dismissals) and Glenn Maxwell (30 balls, 46 runs, Three dismissals) have experience of playing him in the IPL.
The sweep shot and its variants have been relatively risk-free against spin in the matches in Dubai (102 runs off 68 balls for two dismissals) and most of Australia’s batters are adept in playing those shots. However, playing it against Chakaravarthy will be as tough as it gets as New Zealand found out on Sunday. Each of Australia’s batters has a bugbear in India’s attack and how Australia’s batters navigate them in the middle overs will be the most critical factor that decides the outcome of the semifinal.
The match-ups
| Batter | Bowler | Balls | Runs | Dis | Avg | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Carey | K Yadav | 63 | 61 | 5 | 12.2 | 96.83 |
| A Carey | R Jadeja | 43 | 31 | 2 | 15.5 | 72.09 |
| J Inglis | R Jadeja | 23 | 24 | 0 | 104.35 | |
| M Labuschagne | R Jadeja | 167 | 112 | 3 | 37.33 | 67.07 |
| M Labuschagne | K Yadav | 107 | 99 | 2 | 49.5 | 92.52 |
| G Maxwell | R Jadeja | 131 | 154 | 2 | 77 | 117.56 |
| G Maxwell | K Yadav | 69 | 99 | 3 | 33 | 143.48 |
| S Smith | M Shami | 111 | 118 | 4 | 29.5 | 106.31 |
| S Smith | R Jadeja | 188 | 222 | 2 | 111 | 118.09 |
| S Smith | H Pandya | 82 | 84 | 5 | 16.8 | 102.44 |
| S Smith | K Yadav | 145 | 126 | 2 | 63 | 86.9 |
Shreyas Iyer – the most prized wicket
In a batting line-up that featured Rohit, Kohli, and Gill in the top three, it was Iyer that was considered the most important wicket in the scheme of things as far as Australia was considered ahead of the CWC 2023 final. 15 months later, little has changed, and Iyer has gone from strength to strength, establishing him among the premier middle order batters in ODI cricket.
Australia have preferred to go with a four-man attack with Maxwell and Short sharing the fifth bowler’s quota. If Australia have to deploy 10 overs of their lesser bowlers in the middle phase, it is unlikely that Iyer will let them have their way. He has an exceptional record against all kinds of spin and more so against off-spin. His record coming down the track against spin is exceptional.
He has started to employ sweeps recently which have opened up new scoring avenues in the middle-overs. He has looked increasingly more assured against short balls off late and Australia don’t have a bowler with the dual attributes of high pace and tall release who can trouble him with consistent short-pitched bowling.
Shreyas vs spin in ODIs
| Technique | Inns | Runs | BF | SR | Dis | Ave | DR | Bnd% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left-orthodox | 32 | 495 | 517 | 95.74 | 5 | 99 | 103.4 | 9.86 |
| Off-break | 27 | 313 | 271 | 115.49 | 4 | 78.25 | 67.7 | 13.28 |
| Leg-break | 27 | 278 | 300 | 92.66 | 5 | 55.6 | 60 | 8.66 |
| Left-unorthodox | 6 | 72 | 65 | 110.76 | 1 | 72 | 65 | 13.84 |
The Adam Zampa threat
While it was Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood that dented India with the breakthroughs in Ahmedabad in November 2023, it was Adam Zampa’s spell in the middle phase where he conceded just a solitary boundary across 10 overs that created the pressure which his pace bowling partners could exploit. Zampa has positive matchups against seven of India’s top eight batters, with only Kohli managing to average above 40 against him.
Zampa head to-head vs India’s batters
| Batter | Inns | Runs | BF | Dis | SR | Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Kohli | 14 | 264 | 245 | 5 | 107.75 | 52.8 |
| KL Rahul | 12 | 154 | 168 | 4 | 91.66 | 38.5 |
| RG Sharma | 10 | 127 | 128 | 4 | 99.21 | 31.75 |
| RA Jadeja | 11 | 51 | 81 | 3 | 62.96 | 17 |
| HH Pandya | 8 | 100 | 71 | 4 | 140.84 | 25 |
| SS Iyer | 7 | 56 | 64 | 2 | 87.5 | 28 |
| S Gill | 4 | 37 | 47 | 2 | 78.72 | 18.5 |
| AR Patel | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100 | – |
The one batter whom Zampa hasn’t seen much of is Axar Patel, India’s circuit breaker at no. 5 in case of a top order collapse and their left-handed spin basher. Against New Zealand, Axar scored 37 off 36 from spinners as they were trying to stranglehold India in the middle overs, something he has successfully done previously. In the series against England when India were in a spot of bother against Adil Rashid as well as in more tougher conditions in Sri Lanka last year. He is one of the few Indian batters comfortable in sweeping against spin and expect him to bring out the ‘broom’ against Zampa to unsettle the bowler.
© Cricbuzz
